The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (2024)

Table of Contents
From the editor Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2025 Leaders The three forces that will shape 2025 Where Donald Trump will be constrained—and where he will not If Europe wants peace, it must plan for war The gap between global threats and American power will grow in 2025 What Donald Trump’s election means for the global economy The coming border crackdown Will the bubble burst for AI in 2025, or will it start to deliver? A place to talk about cooling the Earth The debate around age limits for politicians will get louder in 2025 The year ahead Calendar 2025 Superforecasters What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2025 Britain Labour will spend 2025 doing what it loves: fighting itself Political fragmentation in Britain is here to stay How much will the British economy grow in 2025? You will be able to walk around the coast of England in 2025 Assisted dying could become law in parts of Britain in 2025 Europe The uncertain outlook for European security Fighting in Ukraine could wind down in 2025 A fiscal squeeze in 2025 will harm Europe’s growth The year ahead will be perilous for Emmanuel Macron’s government Poland’s presidential election will be watched all over Europe Under its new government, Germany will move to the right Edgars Rinkevics says Ukraine is a litmus test for European resolve United States What America can expect after Donald Trump’s election What now for the Democrats? America’s economy enters 2025 in great shape A world in turmoil awaits Donald Trump in 2025 What Donald Trump’s return means for energy policy Donald Trump will try to upend America’s immigration system Why 2025 will bring a reckoning for the rule of law in America What will happen with abortion rights now in America? Sally Paine outlines how America should deal with the “quartet of chaos” The Americas What Donald Trump’s return means for Latin America Pressure to migrate is increasing—but so is the backlash Will the “iron fist” model spread in Latin America? Latin America is making progress on banking the unbanked Justin Trudeau is unlikely to win the Canadian election Argentina: the making of an economic miracle? Asia Will democracy prevail in Asia in 2025? Will private firms step up to maintain India’s investment splurge? Mumbai’s infrastructure extravaganza will soon be revealed This is the year Japan will really start to feel its age Australia is probably headed for a minority government in 2025 Could Myanmar’s junta fall in 2025? Indonesia is at a crossroads China Donald Trump’s second term will present new dangers for China Which are China’s cities of the future? The South China Sea could become a major flashpoint in 2025 China’s entrepreneurs must navigate stormy seas China hopes to dominate the next phase of green innovation Can China turn ageing into an economic asset? Middle East & Africa The outlook for the Middle East depends on three cantankerous old men Binyamin Netanyahu weighs up the political impact of a ceasefire Will Ali Khamenei and Donald Trump ever meet? The Gulf’s rulers are trying to work with China and with the West Arab countries anticipate another youth bulge There is no end in sight for Sudan’s catastrophic civil war South Africa’s coalition government needs to deliver Don’t expect the men with guns to give up power in Africa Investments in Africa will look greener in 2025 Africa will have some of the fastest-growing economies in the world in 2025 International The perils of the world’s third nuclear age How the world lines up, from wars to whales Have global emissions peaked? World leaders are getting older—except in democracies The court cases that could shape how AI develops The shock of “overtourism” will subside in 2025 The skies are getting smaller—and more dangerous How did our predictions stack up in 2024? Comfort Ero offers three lessons for peacemaking in an unstable world Industries Ten business trends for 2025, and forecasts for 15 industries Wild cards Ten implausible-sounding scenarios for 2025 Business Grid-scale storage is the fastest-growing energy technology The very real constraints on artificial intelligence in 2025 New fronts will open up in the chip wars in 2025 Chinese firms will keep going global China’s e-commerce upstarts will start to look more like Western ones To see the cars of the future, look at China’s electric vehicles Conflict is driving investment in European defence firms Is this the year that Boeing turns itself around? Diversity schemes will be slimmed down Fei-Fei Li says understanding how the world works is the next step for AI Finance & economics Interest rates will come down sharply in 2025 The three commodities to watch in 2025 There will be no immediate productivity boost from AI India’s economy will soon overtake Japan’s Do not expect a flurry of stockmarket debuts in 2025 What to expect from America’s stockmarkets in 2025 America and China’s trade war will rock the world Science & technology AI will boost drug development in 2025 Cancer vaccines will have a pivotal moment in 2025 Fusion power is getting closer—no, really Supercomputers and AI are helping build better climate models Space missions to watch in 2025 Casey Handmer says solar power is changing the economics of energy Culture Video games are the next big thing in film and television Jane Austen, still universally acknowledged at 250 The restitution of cultural heritage will race ahead in 2025 American football’s growing global ambitions Streaming slows to a trickle in 2025 China’s ultra-short dramas will enjoy long-term success Tristram Hunt explains why museums are turning themselves inside out Obituary The rings of Saturn will disappear in 2025

From the editor

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (1)

The World Ahead 2025

Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2025

A letter from the editor of The World Ahead

Leaders

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (2)

The world in 2025

The three forces that will shape 2025

Watch the interplay between Donald Trump, technology and radical uncertainty

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (3)

United States in 2025

Where Donald Trump will be constrained—and where he will not

The MAGA scale of policy plausibility provides a handy five-part guide

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (4)

European security in 2025

If Europe wants peace, it must plan for war

But none of its major governments seems ready to face the future

Geopolitics in 2025

The gap between global threats and American power will grow in 2025

The deterrence deficit will become starkly visible in the coming year

Economics in 2025

What Donald Trump’s election means for the global economy

His explosive plan for tariffs will damage world trade, but he will struggle to implement it in full

Immigration in 2025

The coming border crackdown

America will not be the only country trying to curb migration in 2025

Will the bubble burst for AI in 2025, or will it start to deliver?

A place to talk about cooling the Earth

The debate around age limits for politicians will get louder in 2025

Imposing a maximum-age limit on elected politicians may seem sensible, but would be illiberal

The year ahead

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (5)

The year ahead

Calendar 2025

Our selection of events taking place around the world

Superforecasters

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (6)

Superforecasters in 2025

What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2025

The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year

Britain

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (7)

Backbenchers and backbiting

Labour will spend 2025 doing what it loves: fighting itself

But it can afford to, because the Conservatives will be fighting everyone else

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (8)

Britain in 2025

Political fragmentation in Britain is here to stay

Smaller parties are thriving

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (9)

Growing pains

How much will the British economy grow in 2025?

Conditions for economic growth are favourable, but results are uncertain

Coastally awesome

You will be able to walk around the coast of England in 2025

But you may need to bring your wellies

This mortal coil

Assisted dying could become law in parts of Britain in 2025

A shift has begun to happen among politicians

Europe

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (10)

Europe’s perilous choice

The uncertain outlook for European security

Go it alone on defence, stick with America or try to muddle through?

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (11)

Ukraine’s gloomy end-game

Fighting in Ukraine could wind down in 2025

What might a possible deal look like?

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (12)

A thousand cuts

A fiscal squeeze in 2025 will harm Europe’s growth

It will affect politics and the war in Ukraine, too

Balancing act

The year ahead will be perilous for Emmanuel Macron’s government

France looks increasingly unstable

Poles apart

Poland’s presidential election will be watched all over Europe

It could end the current uneasy cohabitation with a hard-right president

Exit Scholz, enter Merz

Under its new government, Germany will move to the right

Getting the economy going will be the priority

Edgars Rinkevics says Ukraine is a litmus test for European resolve

United States

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (13)

The sequel is usually worse

What America can expect after Donald Trump’s election

The new president has control of Congress. What will his priorities be when he assumes office?

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (14)

United States in 2025

What now for the Democrats?

The way forward is far from clear

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (15)

Trump’s rich inheritance

America’s economy enters 2025 in great shape

Politics will not spoil it—but Donald Trump’s agenda presents some serious risks

United States in 2025

A world in turmoil awaits Donald Trump in 2025

In his contempt for allies, the new president will probably add to the chaos

Green to brown

What Donald Trump’s return means for energy policy

Does this spell the end for America’s green-energy push?

Over here

Donald Trump will try to upend America’s immigration system

In some ways he will succeed

Why 2025 will bring a reckoning for the rule of law in America

What will happen with abortion rights now in America?

Sally Paine outlines how America should deal with the “quartet of chaos”

The professor of history and grand strategy at the US Naval War College says history offers valuable lessons

The Americas

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (16)

Handle with care

What Donald Trump’s return means for Latin America

The topics he cares about—immigration, trade and drugs—put the region in the crosshairs

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (17)

Crossing continents

Pressure to migrate is increasing—but so is the backlash

The struggle over migration in Latin America will deepen in 2025

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (18)

Crime and hard punishment

Will the “iron fist” model spread in Latin America?

Two elections in 2025 could show growing support for tougher security policies

The Americas in 2025

Latin America is making progress on banking the unbanked

But it is still just a start

Time’s up

Justin Trudeau is unlikely to win the Canadian election

A pugnacious Conservative could win the 2025 election

By Invitation: The Americas in 2025

Argentina: the making of an economic miracle?

Governing with economic prudence has revived growth, says Javier Milei, president of Argentina

Asia

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (19)

By the people, for the people

Will democracy prevail in Asia in 2025?

There are some worrying signs

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (20)

Investing in India’s future

Will private firms step up to maintain India’s investment splurge?

The government’s reliance on public investment is probably not sustainable

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (21)

Building it

Mumbai’s infrastructure extravaganza will soon be revealed

And not before time

Japan’s 2025 problem

This is the year Japan will really start to feel its age

Bold reforms and greater honesty are needed

Unpopularity contest

Australia is probably headed for a minority government in 2025

A general election will pit two unpopular leaders against each other

Echoes of 1949

Could Myanmar’s junta fall in 2025?

Its army has never been hit this hard

Indonesia is at a crossroads

China

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (22)

Pacific tensions

Donald Trump’s second term will present new dangers for China

But it will also create opportunities for the Communist Party

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (23)

Lower-tier cities

Which are China’s cities of the future?

Those on the second and third tiers are thriving

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (24)

Reefs and beefs

The South China Sea could become a major flashpoint in 2025

South-East Asian nations are pushing back against China

Business challenges

China’s entrepreneurs must navigate stormy seas

They face challenges both domestic and foreign in 2025

Post-solar power

China hopes to dominate the next phase of green innovation

It aims to lead the way on hydrogen, carbon capture and other technologies

A silver-haired lining?

Can China turn ageing into an economic asset?

The “silver economy” could be a lucrative growth area in 2025

Middle East & Africa

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (25)

Israel’s wars

The outlook for the Middle East depends on three cantankerous old men

Ali Khamenei, Binyamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump will determine whether the conflict continues

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (26)

Israeli politics

Binyamin Netanyahu weighs up the political impact of a ceasefire

He wants to avoid a reckoning

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (27)

Iran and America

Will Ali Khamenei and Donald Trump ever meet?

Perhaps an elusive handshake awaits

Gulf partnerships

The Gulf’s rulers are trying to work with China and with the West

It is proving a tricky balancing act

The young and restless

Arab countries anticipate another youth bulge

If there are not enough jobs, the consequences could be serious

Sudan sinks

There is no end in sight for Sudan’s catastrophic civil war

The outside world cares less about it than about Gaza and Ukraine

South Africa’s coalition government needs to deliver

Don’t expect the men with guns to give up power in Africa

Investments in Africa will look greener in 2025

The shift presents opportunities but stokes new tensions

Africa will have some of the fastest-growing economies in the world in 2025

Several fast-growing economies show that not everyone is having a lost decade

International

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (28)

Diplomacy in 2025

The perils of the world’s third nuclear age

Donald Trump must decide how to compete in a new arms race

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (29)

Alliances in 2025

How the world lines up, from wars to whales

Each hot issue brings a new global alliance

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (30)

Climate change in 2025

Have global emissions peaked?

It all depends on the latest figures from China, the world’s largest emitter

Politics in 2025

World leaders are getting older—except in democracies

Countries are ageing with them

Technology in 2025

The court cases that could shape how AI develops

Prepare for a worldwide wrangle over copyright, deepfakes and more

Travel in 2025

The shock of “overtourism” will subside in 2025

Travel trends will return to more normal levels

The skies are getting smaller—and more dangerous

How did our predictions stack up in 2024?

Comfort Ero offers three lessons for peacemaking in an unstable world

Global conflict is rising, but peacemaking is still vital, argues the president of International Crisis Group

Industries

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (31)

The World Ahead 2025

Ten business trends for 2025, and forecasts for 15 industries

A global round-up from The Economist Intelligence Unit

Wild cards

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (32)

Wild cards

Ten implausible-sounding scenarios for 2025

To navigate the future, it can help to anticipate the unlikely

Business

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (33)

Energy’s next big thing

Grid-scale storage is the fastest-growing energy technology

From giant batteries to compressed gas, energy storage is booming

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (34)

The limits of AI

The very real constraints on artificial intelligence in 2025

Prepare for superchips, supercomputers—and supersize headaches

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (35)

Home-made chips

New fronts will open up in the chip wars in 2025

Expect more export bans, a supply glut and creative sanctions-dodging

Business in 2025

Chinese firms will keep going global

American tariffs are helping to drive their expansion overseas

East meets West

China’s e-commerce upstarts will start to look more like Western ones

They will also focus less on Western markets

Xi’s electric

To see the cars of the future, look at China’s electric vehicles

With their surprising and innovative features, they are streets ahead

Conflict is driving investment in European defence firms

Is this the year that Boeing turns itself around?

Diversity schemes will be slimmed down

Genuine diversity will still be welcome, radical ideology less so

Fei-Fei Li says understanding how the world works is the next step for AI

Time to look beyond language models, argues the Stanford professor and “godmother of AI”

Finance & economics

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (36)

Down to earth

Interest rates will come down sharply in 2025

The global economy has had a series of shocks, including the pandemic, an inflation spike and the invasion of Ukraine. As the dust settles, what has changed?

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (37)

Vitamin boost

The three commodities to watch in 2025

The price of oranges, coffee and uranium will stay high

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (38)

Beyond the hype

There will be no immediate productivity boost from AI

Everyone calm down a little

A new Asian pecking order

India’s economy will soon overtake Japan’s

Will that cause an “India shock” for the world economy?

Flotation tanks

Do not expect a flurry of stockmarket debuts in 2025

Share prices are close to all-time highs, but private firms do not seem tempted

Finance in 2025

What to expect from America’s stockmarkets in 2025

Having hit new highs in 2024, markets could be about to get rocky again

America and China’s trade war will rock the world

Science & technology

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (39)

Making pharma go faster

AI will boost drug development in 2025

Software-inspired medicines are getting closer to prime time

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (40)

A new hope

Cancer vaccines will have a pivotal moment in 2025

mRNA technology could once again be a game-changer

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (41)

Science & technology in 2025

Fusion power is getting closer—no, really

The action is shifting from the public to the private sector

Sensitivity about climate

Supercomputers and AI are helping build better climate models

The coming year will be a big one for the advance of climate science

Watch this space

Space missions to watch in 2025

Humans may fly around the Moon, and robots will explore new frontiers

By Invitation: Science & technology in 2025

Casey Handmer says solar power is changing the economics of energy

Large-scale production of synthetic fuel is now feasible, argues the founder of Terraform Industries

Culture

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (42)

From Marvel to Mario

Video games are the next big thing in film and television

The built-in audience is already huge

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (43)

An enduring romance

Jane Austen, still universally acknowledged at 250

The anniversary of her birth will be widely commemorated

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (44)

Homeward bound?

The restitution of cultural heritage will race ahead in 2025

Britain could end up losing its marbles

Touching down

American football’s growing global ambitions

The National Football League will play more games abroad in 2025 than ever before

Pay more, watch less

Streaming slows to a trickle in 2025

TV’s golden era comes to an end

Long story short

China’s ultra-short dramas will enjoy long-term success

Entertaining and innovative, micro-dramas are flourishing both at home and abroad in 2025

Tristram Hunt explains why museums are turning themselves inside out

Obituary

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (45)

Obituary in 2025

The rings of Saturn will disappear in 2025

First observed by Galileo, this occurs twice every 29 years

The World Ahead 2025 from The Economist (2024)
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